You receive the results of an important health checkup. The test has 99% accuracy. The doctor tells you, 'It's positive. You ...

The stock market is an ever-changing place. In fact, it’s changing every second of every day as prices go up and down, and new factors impact the trajectory of the market. It’s important for investors ...

Bayes' theorem is a mathematical formula used in probability theory to calculate conditional probability, i.e., the revised likelihood of an outcome occurring given the knowledge of a related ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

Our world view and resultant actions are often driven by a simple theorem, devised in secret more than 150 years ago by a quiet English mathematician and theologian, Thomas Bayes, and only published ...

A red mark on your test results. The doctor's words, "further testing required." In that moment, your mind goes blank.

You're sitting in the doctor's office waiting for the result of a test. The test will tell you whether you have a disease you really don't want to have. As you wait, it seems as if the whole world is ...

Let’s start out with a one-question quiz, to see how sharp you are. Its application to poker will become clear later. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. Two cab companies, the ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

In last week’s article, I introduced you to a mathematical tool called Bayes’ Theorem. It’s a way of combining two pieces of information in order to arrive at a best estimate of a probability of ...